The Tote Board may have acquired a severe case of campaign fatigue because, for once,
we agree with Bill Kristol.
Tonight's GOP debate is important -- and to a lesser extent, so is
tomorrow's Democratic face-off -- both because it's crunch time and because unless the dynamics change,
John McCain and Hillary Clinton seem likely to win their parties'
nominations. These debates are the best chance to change those
dynamics, unless Bill Clinton decides to gave another sermon about
Barack Obama, or something along that line. (Bill, by the way, has
apparently been sent into campaign semi-exile.)
Mitt Romney tonight faces the tougher road of the two -- both
because he's farther behind -- and because there will be four
candidates on stage, not two, and one of them, Mike Huckabee, tends to
do very well in situations like these. Romney needs a magic moment -- a
clear confrontation with McCain that goes his way, a McCain slip, or a
loss of temper -- because without that, he's unlikely to come back. The
problem is that what Romney might have to do to try to trigger
such a moment could end up making him look quite tawdry. And in any
attack, it will be surprising if the more congenial Huckabee doesn't
come to McCain's defense. (They say the Republicans aren't united --
well, most of the candidates are -- around their dislike of Romney)
Look, we didn't say it would be easy or even likely for
Romney to pull this off. It's just that without something like this,
he may well be on the road to oblivion.
Obama, who's closer behind, simply has to outshine
Hillary -- much the same way JFK did against Nixon (again easier said
than done) -- by making the choice a clear one between the future and
the past. His problem all along in debates has been that while he's
quite good at firing up a hall, in debates he tends to lose
concentration. A debate is kind of like a job interview, and there's a
way in which the more self-deprecating Obama seems to have trouble
taking it all seriously.
If that's his attitude tomorrow, he can forget it.
He's close enough behind that if he does as well as Hillary or even a
bit better, the new voters who are watching him will be impressed. But
she's unlikely to make it easy for him. She's know what's at stake too
and will be well-rehearsed and prepared.
The hunch here is that with only the two of them on
stage, the dynamic will be different than in the previous Democratic debates. How, of course, we'll find out
tomorrow night.
