The Phoenix

Two Scenarios For A Last-Minute Iowa GOP Surge

   With Thursday looming, here's what could happen in the GOP race to tilt things one way or the other:

    Romney: The constant negative attacks keep working and with a superior organization, Romney grinds out a victory, with McCain and Thompson cutting into Huckabee's potential totals.
    Huckabee: Many of Huckabee's supporters are evangelical Christians and first-time voters -- under the radar so to speak -- and so they weren't picked up as much by pollsters nor were they swayed by the negative attacks all that much either. Any Thompson or McCain gains come mostly at the expense of Romney.

    Again, it's not a prediction but the hunch here is that of the two scenarios, the Huckabee one is likelier.

Published Dec 30 2007, 07:10 PM by Importer

Luke Liberty said:

As a former Huckabee supporter and contributor (and evangelical) I hope your Huckabee surge scenario is wrong. I have been completely turned off this month by the cascade of sophomoric comments by Huckabee (let's see, apologies for Bhutto assassination; comments re Pakistani illegals; the foolish Foreign Affairs article; the John Bolton claim) and the utterly inappropriate innuendo about Romney's Mormonism. I don't care for Mormonism, but this is an election about leadership of a secular government. I wanted Huckabee to be the one and he is smart, witty, compassionate, etc. But completely and dangerously out of his league on foreign affairs and his Mormon innuendo is appalling.

December 31, 2007 7:30 PM
LorenzoJennifer said:

"All politics is local," said the venerable "Tip" O'Neill, Speaker of the House of Representatives and Massachusetts congressman par excellence. Arkansas (Huckabee) is a lot more local to Iowa than the Harvard Business School and Belmont Hill, MA (Romney). The roles will reverse when the campaign trail winds through Michigan - Romney's stompin' grounds. Viewed Huckabee at the PBS-sponsored GOP debate at "historically black" Morgan State University (the college's own description as indicated by debate moderator Tavis Smiley). Do not agree with Huckabee's politics but his telegenic personality, witty and responsive style came right through the tube as did his earnest committment to the issues. Compare with Romney's empty suit, on stage persona and carefully scripted answers. In addition to his flip-flops, of course. Also, Huckabee has emerged as the fave of the evangelical Christian crowd and they constitute a high percentage of Republican caucus goers. If Willard pulls it off, attribute his bucks (advertising) and buses (transporting his supporters to the caucus sites as was done in the August Iowa Straw Poll).

December 31, 2007 8:19 PM