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New Nevada Poll Good News for Romney and Clinton

    Nevada holds an early caucus this year -- the Saturday in between the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary in January. It's held on a weekend -- so it won't get tons of attention -- but it might provide a bit of spin for some candidates as they head into the key New Hampshire primary.
    A poll out this week of likely caucus attendees from American Research Group Inc.shows that for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton currently has a huge 24-point lead over both John Edwards and Barack Obama in Nevada. If this were to hold, it would provide Clinton with a bit of insurance should she lose Iowa five days earlier.
    The really bad news in the poll is for Bill Richardson, who's been targeting the state. He still languishes in single digits; unless he makes a move in Nevada, his campaign is likely finished.
    On the GOP side, Mitt Romney has jumped into a lead. Again, if this holds, it could simply add to the momentum he's trying to build by sweeping the early states.
    The bad news in the GOP poll is for John McCain. He's a neighbor, yet he's currently tied for third with Fred Thompson. It wouldn't be a bad idea for McCain to pour a lot of resources into Nevada, in the hopes of resurrecting his campaign, should he lose badly in Iowa.

  • LorenzoJennifer said:

    While many may consider Nevada a "fly over" state, it'll be a mistake to consider it a "by pass" state as it holds the nation's first caucus or primary vote west of the Mississippi.  Nevada's voting results and patterns in Las Vegas (big city), Reno (small city/suburban) and its vast rural areas are certainly more representative of the West than, say, Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina. A week-end voting schedule encourages high turn-out - and, hopefully, reliable representation -  as it beats rushing to the polls on a wintry Tuesday night.  Pundits and seers will be tested in Nevada as the state - from what I can tell, anyway - has no traditions or voting behavior that helps make predictions possible - such as Iowa (organized get the voters to the sites), the encyclopedic snows of New Hampshire (retail campaigning) or South Carolina (the conservative "firewall" that destroys dislked candidates such as McCain in 2000).  Sen. Harry Reid, the state's senior senator and Senate Majority Leader, compels Democratic candidate participation - interestingly, the Nevada GOP moved its caucus to the Democrats' date.

    Curious to see how Romney does in a state where gambling and prostitution are legalized.  Sen. Reid is a Mormon and Nevada borders Utah, Mormon church headquarters.

    June 26, 2007 1:01 AM

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