January 31, 2008
We reviewed the high stakes for tonight's debate yesterday in a post. To repeat what we said there:
"Obama, who's closer behind [than Romney is to McCain], simply has to outshine Hillary -- much the same way JFK did against Nixon (again easier said than done) -- by making the choice a clear one between the future and the past. His problem all along in debates has been that while he's quite good at firing up a hall, in debates he tends to lose concentration. A debate is kind of like a job interview, and there's a way in which the more self-deprecating Obama seems to have trouble taking it all seriously.
If that's his attitude tomorrow, he can forget it. He's close enough behind that if he does as well as Hillary or even a bit better, the new voters who are watching him will be impressed. But she's unlikely to make it easy for him. She's know what's at stake too and will be well-rehearsed and prepared.
The hunch here is that with only the two of them on stage, the dynamic will be different than in the previous Democratic debates. How, of course, we'll find out tonight."
January 31, 2008
For what it's worth (which may not be much), the general pundit consensus is that Mitt Romney didn't get the breakthrough he needed at last night's debate.
January 31, 2008
January 30, 2008
The Tote Board may have acquired a severe case of campaign fatigue because, for once,
we agree with Bill Kristol.
Tonight's GOP debate is important -- and to a lesser extent, so is
tomorrow's Democratic face-off -- both because it's crunch time and because unless the dynamics change,
John McCain and Hillary Clinton seem likely to win their parties'
nominations. These debates are the best chance to change those
dynamics, unless Bill Clinton decides to gave another sermon about
Barack Obama, or something along that line. (Bill, by the way, has
apparently been sent into campaign semi-exile.)
Mitt Romney tonight faces the tougher road of the two -- both
because he's farther behind -- and because there will be four
candidates on stage, not two, and one of them, Mike Huckabee, tends to
do very well in situations like these. Romney needs a magic moment -- a
clear confrontation with McCain that goes his way, a McCain slip, or a
loss of temper -- because without that, he's unlikely to come back. The
problem is that what Romney might have to do to try to trigger
such a moment could end up making him look quite tawdry. And in any
attack, it will be surprising if the more congenial Huckabee doesn't
come to McCain's defense. (They say the Republicans aren't united --
well, most of the candidates are -- around their dislike of Romney)
Look, we didn't say it would be easy or even likely for
Romney to pull this off. It's just that without something like this,
he may well be on the road to oblivion.
Obama, who's closer behind, simply has to outshine
Hillary -- much the same way JFK did against Nixon (again easier said
than done) -- by making the choice a clear one between the future and
the past. His problem all along in debates has been that while he's
quite good at firing up a hall, in debates he tends to lose
concentration. A debate is kind of like a job interview, and there's a
way in which the more self-deprecating Obama seems to have trouble
taking it all seriously.
If that's his attitude tomorrow, he can forget it.
He's close enough behind that if he does as well as Hillary or even a
bit better, the new voters who are watching him will be impressed. But
she's unlikely to make it easy for him. She's know what's at stake too
and will be well-rehearsed and prepared.
The hunch here is that with only the two of them on
stage, the dynamic will be different than in the previous Democratic debates. How, of course, we'll find out
tomorrow night.
January 30, 2008
John Edwards is ending his presidential race today. How it affects the Democratic race is anyone's guess -- though it's likely not to have a major impact. The truth is that Edwards didn't have a lot of support left in the Super Tuesday states, except, perhaps, in the south, and even there it was only around 15% or even less. So, while this could help Obama (which is the common assumption), that's hardly a sure thing.
January 30, 2008
January 30, 2008
January 30, 2008
With Rudy Giuliani reportedly set
to endorse John McCain, the Romney candidacy is in trouble. Sure, he
can continue to spend his millions and he's a finalist in a two-and-a-half person
race, with Mike Huckabee lingering in the background. But in five
direct races since January, he's won one -- Michigan -- where his
family name likely carried him to victory. He lost last night when
Independents, a McCain strength, couldn't vote in the primary. And, he
faces a very
unfavorable line-up of states on Super Tuesday -- an issue we'll
address in tomorrow's Tote Board column.
McCain could well come close to wrapping up the nomination less than a week from now.
January 29, 2008
John McCain has apparently eked out a narrow victory over Mitt Romney. But the real story is that with Rudy Giuliani now likely out of the race with a distant third place finish, McCain is the likely beneficiary of the bulk of his support -- at least in the northeast (NJ, Ct., and NY), which next week could deliver McCain almost 20% of the delegates needed to nominate. That's a huge plus for McCain, bigger, perhaps, than the ultimate result tonight.
McCain is now the man to catch for the GOP nomination.
January 29, 2008
With the Obama endorsement of Ted Kennedy following in the footsteps of endorsements from party luminaries such as Claire McCaskill, Janet Napolitano, and Kent Conrad, it’s clear that Hillary Clinton is not getting the support of some of the establishment Democrats she might have been counting on. This is an important development that is not just about campaign momentum. “Party luminaries” comprise about 800 of the delegates to the Democratic convention – approximately 20% of the total. Up until now, it has been widely assumed that the party establishment would rally heavily to the establishment candidate, namely Clinton, providing her a necessary boost of delegates should the race remain close.
With a general revulsion to the Clinton’s campaign tactics now settling in, that assumption is now questionable. Moreover, even if Clinton should ultimately prevail in a close contest, she and her husband have so alienated a significant number of Democrats that there is likely to be a significant swath of delegates on the floor in Denver who are going to need a lot of persuading to keep them from embarrassing Clinton in her moment of triumph.
It is a truism but it’s not worth winning the battle if by doing it you’re going to lose the war.
January 29, 2008
In Florida tonight for the Dems,
there are no delegates at stake.
Neither candidate was allowed to
campaign there by the DNC. So it's obvious that in an environment in
which Barack Obama hasn't been able to campaign, the better known
Hillary Clinton will win big.
It proves nothing; it means nothing. But if the
networks tonight and the papers tomorrow report the results without a
lot of caveats, it will give Clinton momentum.
It is completely unfair and tonight the Tote Board,
at least, will set an example and give it the complete lack of coverage it deserves.
January 28, 2008
The press has been focusing on the wrong stakes in tomorrow's GOP Florida primary. Yes, John McCain would like to win. But what is far more important to his candidacy is that Rudy Giuliani finish far enough behind his totals that Giuliani's candidacy is buried. McCain can afford a narrow loss to Mitt Romney in Florida. What he can't afford is a viable Giuliani on Super Tuesday, draining votes from his candidacy -- especially in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. These are all winner-take-all states that McCain needs to forge a first ballot victory.
How Giuliani does tomorrow will determine the course of the GOP contest.
January 27, 2008
Most endorsements don't mean much, as we've noted often, but
the report that Ted Kennedy will endorse Barack Obama will help -- especially in Massachusetts where Obama is believed to be within striking distance of Hillary Clinton.
There's still a potential endorsement out there, by
the way, that could move voters: Al Gore is yet to be heard from.
January 26, 2008
Barack Obama has won a huge victory tonight
over Hillary Clinton -- so much so that he apparently will go
over 50% and Clinton will finish far closer to Edwards than the winner.
Assuming Clinton holds second, no matter how far back she is, tonight's victory for
Obama will likely not hurt her momentum much heading into Florida on Tuesday
-- a primary the media should actually not report both because it's
only a "beauty contest" and no Democratic candidates campaigned there (see our post from yesterday).
But the networks will likely report those results on Tuesday (after all, they're there covering the GOP), and Clinton
is likely to win that one big. So, she will likely get a corresponding bump
heading into
Super Tuesday, making these two results together something of a wash.
If Edwards had passed her tonight, however,
she would have had some explaining to do -- and the same goes for
Bill.
By the way, Obama did far better with whites in SC (about 25%) than Hillary did with blacks (about 18%).
At least for tonight, the Clinton campaign hardly
looks like a juggernaut. But to be fair, an outspoken northern woman was
never going to do well in this state. Of all 50, this is her weakest
and thus it is Obama's strongest.
January 25, 2008
What's at stake in tomorrow's South Carolina Democratic primary? A bit less than meets the eye.
Barack Obama seems likely to win handily. And, yes, if he wins, it will be because of an overwhelming black vote, since black voters comprise about half of the primary voters. It's no surprise. As we wrote a year ago, "there is an understandable pride among
voters whenever “one of their own” seeks the nation’s highest office.
John F. Kennedy did better among Catholics than any Democrat in recent
history; Mitt Romney will do very well among Mormons, and most
presidential candidates usually get a huge home-state bounce. Black
voters are not going to be an exception to this rule."
But Obama is likely to gain little momentum from his expected victory because on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton will win the Florida primary handily. True, it's only a "beauty contest:" No delegates are at stake because the Democratic National Committee stripped the state of its delegates for moving its primary into January. And, yes, no candidates have campaigned there because of the DNC's edict, meaning that the press shouldn't even report the results of the Florida race.
But it will and the average voter who isn't following the race closely won't know the difference. So, Hillary is likely to be the candidate heading into Super Tuesday with more momentum.
If Obama, by the way, should unexpectedly lose tomorrow (even more unlikely than it seems because John Edwards could do better than expected), his campaign will be in very serious trouble.
